AccuWeather: 'Sunday it can blow up in the Gulf'
Cheryl McCloudUSA TODAY NETWORK - Florida
In a rush? Here's everything you need to know — in less than a minute — about what's happening in the tropics.
The tropical wave approaching Florida and the U.S. is now Invest 97L and chances for development over the next 48 hours and 7 days have increased, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
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➤ Spaghetti models for Invest 97L
"The latest models show it going into the eastern Gulf and then exploding there," said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. "Residents from Louisiana to Florida's West Coast have to be ready in case it rapidly intensifies."
The National Hurricane Center is giving a low chance — 30% — for development over the next 48 hours. Chances for development over the next seven days also have increased, to 70%. The next advisory will be issued at 8 p.m.
Forecasters with the Hurricane Center said a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or near the Florida Peninsula.
Where it could develop remains unknown and ranges from over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida.
If sustained winds reach 39 mph, it could become Tropical Storm Debby, the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather meteorologistssaid development "may be slow initially ... but it may strengthen as is approaches Florida this weekend with an uptick of downpours, thunderstorms and surf."
Don't be confused by the National Hurricane Center's tropical outlook map. Although the colored area may look like the Hurricane's Center "cone of concern," the orange area on the agency's tropical outlook map actually signifies where a tropical cyclone could develop, not where a storm could go.
Tropical cyclone is the generic term that covers all tropical systems, including tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m. Aug. 1 as forecasters track the system:
Invest 97L could become tropical depression, Tropical Storm Debby
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
➤ Excessive rainfall forecast
Development of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.
Residents in the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
- Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 30 percent.
- Formation chance through 7 days: high, 70 percent.
Spaghetti models: Latest models on where Invest 97L could go as it moves toward Florida
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
Will Invest 97L strengthen over or near Florida? The outlook
"The latest models show it going into the eastern Gulf and then exploding there," said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok.
"There is low steering flow in the eastern Gulf so once it gets there, it's kind of stuck and over warm water, it can intensify. At this point, it can go almost anywhere. There's just nothing in the Gulf to steer it and there's very concerning.
"I don't trust it and don't like it. Residents from Louisiana to Florida's West Coast and Panhandle have to be ready in case it rapidly intensifies. And if it sits there (in the Gulf) it can intensify. The slower it moves, the stronger it can become."
Pastelok said forecasters will have a better idea on what will happen once the invest moves through the Caribbean islands and mountains, which could slow development and organization.
"Sunday, it could blow up in the eastern Gulf."
What impact can Florida expect from Invest 97L
"Downpours and gusty thunderstorms will spread westward across Cuba and the western islands of the Bahamas on Friday before spreading over the Florida Keys and the southern part of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.
"Along with the potential for urban flooding will be the risk of waterspouts and hazards for beach and boating interests, at the very least," AccuWeather said.
"As the system approaches and begins to strengthen, rip currents will increase in strength and number along the Florida coastline this weekend.
"Should the storm stay east of Florida, the rough surf conditions will spread northward along the Atlantic coast. If the center migrates farther to the northwest, then surf conditions will build along the Gulf Coast."
What does the colored area on the NOAA map mean?
The striped areas on a tropical outlook map indicate "areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop," said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop, with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn't issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
"If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won't wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn't become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare," Rhome said.
Who is likely to be impacted?
No matter where the tropical wave goes, expect surf and seas to build well in advance of it, along with dangerous rip currents, AccuWeather said.
"All that can be said with confidence is that elevated rain chances are probable in the Florida peninsula this weekend," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologistat WeatherTiger. " It’ll take a few more days to sort out what may become of this messy wave.
"Given current trends, there’s a fair chance that 'something' forms over the weekend in the general vicinity of the Florida peninsula, though a wild card is how much the wave is disrupted by land interaction over the next few days."
Truchelut works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.
Hurricane forecast: A rainy Florida sideswipe or a festering Gulf storm threat?
Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's next?
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